🍪 Daily Byte – 11.12.2025

By Byte & Block — exploring the building blocks of digital finance.

Today’s Menu:

• Bitcoin Softens on Weak Demand
• Senate Crypto Bill Stalls
• Gemini Wins CFTC Approval

Fear & Greed Index Today

Prices as of 09:00 AM CET

₿ Bitcoin Slips Again as Fed Uncertainty, Weak Demand, and Cycle Doubts Weigh on the Market

Bitcoin is trading lower today after another round of choppy price action, slipping back under key levels and reminding traders that the market still lacks conviction.

The move comes just hours after the Federal Reserve delivered another 25 bps rate cut — a widely expected decision, but not enough to ignite fresh demand or push BTC toward the long-teased $100K breakout.

Selling pressure has cooled compared to earlier in the week, but the bigger issue is the lack of strong buyers. Market depth remains thin, liquidity pockets are soft, and order-book support has not rebuilt meaningfully. In simple terms: the bleeding slowed, but the demand didn’t show up.

Fed’s rate cut did little to inspire risk appetite. Traders wanted a clearer pivot toward aggressive easing — instead, they got a cautious move paired with uncertain forward guidance. Without a strong macro tailwind, Bitcoin’s path higher remains constrained.

That hasn’t stopped analysts from floating bullish scenarios. Some argue that BTC still has a realistic shot at breaking $100K this cycle, especially if liquidity improves into early 2026. But others — including Cathie Wood — say institutional flows have disrupted the typical four-year cycle rhythm. Her view: Bitcoin’s cycles are now shaped by macro, not just halving timelines, and the institutional bid is both stronger and slower than retail-driven cycles of the past.

Adding fuel to the debate, a widely shared clip circulating on X claims Raoul Pal believes Bitcoin and crypto are “about to go parabolic soon,” citing liquidity models that suggest the next leg could be sharp once financial conditions loosen. Whether that optimism lands depends on one thing the market still doesn’t have: buyers willing to step in now.

For the moment, price keeps sagging because conditions haven’t changed. ETF flows are muted. Spot demand is soft. Derivatives are clean but uninspired. Macro isn’t providing rocket fuel. And traders are split between “this is the end of the cycle” and “this is the coil before liftoff.”

Byte & Block’s take:

Bitcoin isn’t breaking down — it’s drifting. The market isn’t scared. It’s waiting. And until liquidity picks a direction, BTC will keep behaving like an asset stuck between two narratives: the cycle believers and the macro realists.

🇺🇸 U.S. Senate’s Crypto Market Structure Bill Stalls as Political Clock Runs Out

The U.S. Senate’s long-anticipated crypto market structure bill is now tangled in procedural delays and political friction, with lawmakers running out of calendar space to push it forward before year-end. CoinDesk reports that the bill — once seen as a possible breakthrough for defining the regulatory roles of the SEC and CFTC — has become a victim of legislative crowding and competing priorities.

The bill aims to clarify which digital assets fall under securities rules versus commodities, establish clearer oversight frameworks, and lay groundwork for more compliant on-ramps for institutions. But progress has slowed as committees disagree on core definitions, enforcement language, and how much responsibility each regulator should have.

Lawmakers had hoped to advance the bill before 2026 budgeting battles begin, but the Senate’s packed schedule has left little room for additional negotiation, and political appetite appears to be fading. The longer the delay, the more uncertainty persists for exchanges, token issuers, and institutional players waiting for regulatory clarity.

Byte & Block’s take:

Washington keeps promising clarity — and keeps delivering bottlenecks. Until the Senate agrees on what crypto is, the industry will remain trapped in regulatory limbo while policymakers debate definitions instead of outcomes.

Gemini Wins CFTC Approval to Launch Regulated Prediction Markets in the U.S.

Gemini just scored a significant regulatory win: approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to operate a prediction-market platform inside the United States. CryptoNews reports that the approval gives Gemini clearance to list event-based markets under a supervised structure — covering economic indicators, financial outcomes, and other measurable events.

Prediction markets have long existed in crypto, but most operated in legal gray zones or offshore environments. This approval marks one of the first times a major U.S. exchange can offer prediction products legally and openly, with guardrails designed to protect users and ensure outcome transparency.

Under the CFTC framework, Gemini will be able to offer contracts based on clearly defined, objectively verifiable results — bringing prediction markets closer to traditional event-driven financial instruments. The move positions Gemini to compete with platforms like Kalshi, but with crypto-native infrastructure and global reach.

Byte & Block’s take:

Prediction markets going regulated is bigger than it sounds. They turn information — not tokens — into tradable assets. And Gemini now has the green light to bring that model to U.S. consumers in a way crypto-native platforms never could.

Meme of the day

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